While injuries to starters typically can devastate a team, the injuries to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ outfield this season have, in fact, been helpful for the team’s future. Losing Andruw Jones and then Juan Pierre has meant more playing time for their young hotshots Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, something Torre was either unwilling or unable to do, perhaps because he was stuck by the same “play the most who you pay the most” philosophy that has plagued the Mariners.

When reversed, as I discussed a few days ago in the context of Toronto’s new skipper Cito Gaston, you not only get a good view of your team’s future, you also send a clear message to all players, veteran and rookie, that performance will be the only metric by which they’ll gain playing time. Now, of course, the Dodgers are unlike the Mariners and Blue Jays, in that they’re actually competitive, but in the case of Ethier and Kemp, that doesn’t make a difference. These are the guys who have been playing anyway.

Continue reading "Crowded Outfield—No More!"

The closer position in baseball is a relatively recent development, one which has only come about as a full-time position with specific duties in the past twenty years. There were closers before then, guys who came into the game in tight situations, but they might appear in the sixth or seventh inning as the ninth, and (at least early in this century) might be starters pitching on their off-day.

But as pitching has become more specialized—due both to the expansion of leagues (and hence the thinning of talent) and the improvement in baseball hitting—so have positions within the pitching roster. Nowadays, we have starters and relievers, but it’s rare for a pitcher to do both, and when he does, it’s often because he’s been “demoted” to the bullpen.

Continue reading "K-Rod: King of Saves"

After yesterday’s game, the Yankees held a closed-door meeting among coaches and players—reportedly, manager Joe Girardi spoke, followed by Johnny Damon and captain Derek Jeter. In a postgame news conference, Girardi repeatedly (and sometimes heatedly) refused to reveal what was said in the meeting, although the gist of the discussion was obvious: the can’t-lose Yankees have been losing.

Dinged up by multiple injuries, especially to their starting pitchers, the Yankees have been hovering around the .500 mark, only climbing out of the cellar recently. But they’re still looking up at the Rays and Red Sox, eight games out of first and five games out of second. It’s not a place that the Yankees, or their fans, are used to occupying.

Last night’s game was even more unsettling, as Jon Lester tossed a complete-game, 7-0 shutout. It wasn’t just the shutout—after all, Lester had a no-hitter earlier this year, so his stuff is clearly good—as the way they were shut out. Andy Pettitte, who had been doing better of late and always dependable at home, was chased after four-and-two-thirds innings, having given up five runs on nine hits, with three walks and two strikeouts. Boston jumped on him early, scoring two runs in each of the first two innings, and the Yankees seemed to have given up the game after that.

Continue reading "More Bad Yankee Luck"

Don’t look now, but the Mariners have suddenly won two series in a row, sparked by Jeff Clement’s two-dinger performance last night. They’ve got a huge hike just to get back to respectability and avoid the specter of being the first team with a $100M+ payroll to lose 100 games—hey, I’d take $1M to lose a game, wouldn’t you? —but the signs are there. Some of them, anyway.

Clement had been scuffling of late, 0-8 in his past two games, and his average sat at .170/.282/.295 as he muddled around at the bottom half of the lineup. OF course, starting at DH last night and hitting fourth was Jose Vidro, with a comparatively robust .220/.268/.322—in the 2008 Mariners lineup, twenty-eight points of slugging is evidently the difference between fourth and eighth in the batting order. Superstinker Richie Sexson, hitting seventh, went into the night with a .222/.313/.377 line (which only looks awful until you note that his OPS is almost thirty points higher than it was two weeks ago), while the best slugger on the team, Adrian Beltre, had a swell-looking .253/.324/.449, and was hitting fifth.

Continue reading "Clement and M’s Show Some Life"

For my loyal readers, sorry for the hiatus, as I was out of town at a trade show.

So much to cover from while I was gone, including the two big NL Central pitcher trades (you might be surprised as to which one I think will have the bigger impact) and Tampa Bay suddenly falling into the tank (are Rays fans scared yet?). But I want to start with something near and dear to Mariners fans, especially those on this blog.

Sometimes in sports, you feel like Someone Out There is Listening. I've been howling for the head of Bill Bavasi since before I started hollering for it on this blog--and last month, he got the sack from ownership. Even more than Bavasi, though, I've been hollering about the Big Mistake that was Richie Sexson, a ballplayer with declining skills who, even at the height of his high-strikeout longball powers, was a poor fit for Safeco. 

Continue reading "Sexson Becomes Ex-Son"

Still playing ketchup here, trying to make up for a four-day absence from the blog, so I want to start with the big trade of last week, the CC Sabathia swap. The usefulness of this deal to the Brewers is a little dubious, as CC is likely to be a half-season rental, but let’s break it down:

Milwaukee gets the portly lefty Sabathia, who is one year removed from a Cy Young season that not only saw him strike out 209 (versus only 37 walks) and give up just 238 hits in 241 innings. And as impressive as the other numbers are, it’s that last one that should give teams pause. That’s a lot of innigns to hang on any young arm, especially one attached to a body that pushes 300 pounds.

In recent seasons, Sabathia’s been a slow starter, reversing the typical trend among young pitchers, who tend to start strong, then fade down the stretch, their arms unaccustomed to a full season’s workload. He had those sort of splits early in his career, but as he aged (and his weight ballooned out) he started to change directions.

Continue reading "NL Central Trade Analysis, Part One"

The other big trade that happened recently was the Cubs’ acquisition of the oft-injured Rich Harden from Oakland. This move is typical of Oakland’s business model, which involves shedding young stars before they get too expensive, often in exchange for other young or undervalued stars. In this way, they’re similar to the Florida Marlins, except that the Marlins tend to load up for concentrated runs at the championship (they have as many championships in the last decade as big-market Boston, and more than the Cubs have in the past hundred years), while the A’s tend towards consistent competitiveness.

Likewise, Chicago’s move is typical of a big-market club looking for that last piece to take them over the top—or, in this case, more like the big-market club trying to respond to a big move made by a competitor. When Milwaukee traded for the half-season rental of C.C. Sabathia, Chicago likely felt it had to pull the trigger on a deal, too. It’s hard to delve into the minds of baseball execs, since this deal may have been cooking for some time and the timing is coincidental, but it’s hard to read this any other way. And Buster Olney breaks down the trade at ESPN  showing how both the need for a Sabathia response and a desire for greater depth led to this trade.

Continue reading "NL Central Trade Analysis, Part Two"

It’s the All-Star Break once again, that mythical halfway point in the season (I say “mythical” because most teams have played 95-96 games, more than the 81 that’s the true midway mark). Traditionally, it’s time for the teams to take a breath, collect themselves and iron out any kinks in their batting stroke or the pitching rotation—several starters made relief appearances or threw out of turn in the past game or two, knowing that three or four days of rest was coming for all of them.

For spectators and commentators like me, it’s also a time to pause and reassess, make second-half pronouncements, and try and find something to do with our afternoons and evenings.

Oh, yeah, there’s that All-Star game, around which this entire break is built. As much of an avid baseball as I am, I rarely watch it. Possibly because I’ve grown up during the era when it didn’t mean much, when hard Pete Rose slides were derided as somehow offensive to the concept of this showcase of talent. Pitchers would throw their honorary inning or two, and batters were rotated to give everyone a chance to get a hit, just like in Little League.

Continue reading "Gimme A Break!"

One of the All-Star Break traditions: Reassessing our predictions from the first half of the season. Some of mine have changed, some have stayed the same—and some were just damn wrong. Living in the West, I will take the contrarian position and roll from west to east in my choices.

AL West: That I chose Seattle to take this division (and I wasn’t alone) is both laughable and an indication of the hometown favoritism I try and avoid. That Anaheim is well in first place, in spite of injuries and age, is an indication both of the smarts of manager Mike Scoscia and a very weak division. Texas will continue to pound the ball as the summer months heat up, but so will their opponents, meaning that Anaheim wins this one going away. And Oakland will continue their tradition of contention without a championship, scrapping with Texas for second.

Continue reading "Second Half Predictions"

The whole “make the All-Star Game meaningful” movement started in 2002, when Bud Selig had to call a tied, extra-inning game when the bullpens were too depleted to continue. In an effort to give each pitcher his one or two innings of work, nobody had anticipated the consequences.

Calling the game tied was indubitably a better choice than either breaking baseball’s rules and allowing a pitcher to re-enter the game (which they wouldn’t have done anyway), blowing out some poor guy’s arm by forcing him to stay out on the hill too long, or reverting to that time-honored desperation move of putting a position player on the bump. After all, the game “didn’t mean anything,” right?

Well, we may see the demise of the “meaningful” All-Star game after another extra-inning matchup. In only the sixth annual All-Star Game to determine home-field advantage in the World Series, the game went on far longer than expected, as it dragged into fifteen marathon innings. In the process, Clint Hurdle had Phillies closer Brad Lidge warming up six different times before he finally came in and gave up the game on Michael Young’s sacrifice fly.

Continue reading "Six Extra Innings of Meaning"

As I expected, Richie Sexson was signed by the one team in major league baseball who signs every single castoff, just in case he might turn it around in pinstripes: the Yankees. The temptation of that short porch in Yankee Stadium right field, combined with Sexson’s power potential, was too tempting to the team that claimed Jose Canseco off waivers in 2000, just to be sure he didn’t go to a division rival.

It’s not likely that the Red Sox (with an ailing Papi) or the Rays (with a struggling Carlos Pena) would have taken Big Sexy (If big strikeouts are still sexy. If they ever were sexy). But the Yanks give themselves both a power threat off the bench and someone to spell Giambi against lefties.

Anything’s possible for someone in pinstripes, though Canseco’s numbers in pinstripes actually declined from his moderately respectable .257/.383/.450 line with Tampa Bay. Me, I’m not predicting much more than an occasional home run from Richie (but not in a close game; his 2008 hitting stats got better the bigger the lead was) and a whole lot of bleacher-cooling whiffs.

Continue reading "Sexson a Yankee; LaHair a Mariner"

A few relatively minor items to cover with the moves made by a few teams recently. What might they mean in the second half? I’ll try and puzzle this out.

Tony Clark, who experienced a career resurgence the day he put on an Arizona Diamondbacks uniform back in 2005, hs returned to the cozy confines of Chase Field. Petco, where hitting a homer is as hard as hitting the lottery, wasn’t as kind to the aging Clark as Chase has been, so he’ll certainly improve on his 2008 line of .239/.374/.307. His 32:19 K:BB ratio, as well as hs 165-point difference between BA and OBP, will tell you his batting eye is fine, and some power should follow.

This moves Conor Jackson full-time into the outfield, in the absence of Eric Byrnes (who’s likely done for the season) and the possible absence of Justin Upton (who’s struggling and nursing a strained oblique). The switch-hitting Clark should spell Chad Tracy at first base against lefties, with the outside possibility of a full-blown platoon, since Clark’s numbers from the right side aren’t that much better than Tracy’s. Tony will also provide the bench power he brought before, when he always seemed to be the one to deliver the game-changing dinger.

Continue reading "Roster Tinkering: What's it Mean?"

The AP is reporting the obvious, that Jose Vidro will lose time to the recently promoted Bryan LaHair at the DH spot, making me wonder (for the eleventy-millionth time) why he’s using up a roster spot at all. A backup DH? That’s about as useful as a left-handed monkey wrench, and about as valuable, too.

Some might look at Richie Sexson’s one-game performance with the Yankees—one for four with a walk and RBI, both of the latter rare occurrences that the Yankee fans should treasure—as a warning sign against releasing guys with some value to them. The problem, of course, is that Sexson has value with the Yankees for what they’re paying him (a reported $160,000) and not for what they would have had to pay for him in a Mariners trade ($15.5 million). That’s a heck of a difference, and Vidro’s got the same problem.

Continue reading "No Way, Jose"

If ever there was a sign that the Brewers’ future is now, it’s in their recent acquisition of veteran Ray Durham, who should shore up their leadoff spot, as well as allow Rickie Weeks the time off he sometimes needs when mired in a slump. Since they’ve already gambled their future on C.C. Sabathia—who’s looked amazing so far, winning all three starts and throwing complete games in two of them—it only makes sense for them to do whatever they can to push for the pennant this year.

As I’d pointed out in an earlier blog, Weeks at leadoff is one of the glaring holes in the Brewers lineup. He’s good with the glove, has speed and occasional power, but his .326 OBP is at least twenty-five points below what you want in a leadoff hitter, and reversed a rising OBP trend in the past three seasons. Last year, in spite of a .235 BA, he had a .374 OBP, and had 78 walks to go with his 116 Ks. All of these were improvements over 2006, and Milwaukee had hoped his discipline and eye would continue to get better.

Continue reading "Brewers Grab Durham"

For some time now, no pitcher worth his spikes wanted to pitch in Coors Field. Teams scored in the double-digits, and so did pitcher’s ERAs. Some said that the thin air meant the ball would travel farther—which, as we’ve all seen, it does. Others say that the ball breaks differently in the thin air, that curves and sliders hang, that cutters don’t cut—that’s likely true, too.

The Rockies have tried some different angles on this. One was to bring in sinkerballers. See Mike Hampton’s Coors line (17-10 with a 5.79 ERA in 33 starts) to see how that went. Maybe the ball doesn’t sink in thin air, either.

Another option was to go with a four-man rotation, as they did in 2004—if your starting pitching is going to suck, why not just pitch the guys a ton of innings, and teach them to pitch when they’re tired (and suck)? Their starters had a 5.54 ERA that season, right in line with the 5.53 ERA held by their relievers. Oh well.

Continue reading "Ubaldo Jimenez: the Anti-Coors Pitcher"

Offensively and defensively, the Yankees have been missing the services of Hideki Matsui since June 27, and Jorge Posada on and off for even longer. Matsui is an integral RBI guy to give ARod and Giambi protection in the five or six hole, and is needed more than ever in left with Johnny Damon's shoulder issues. Posada can hit pretty well, but can't throw, so even when he was in the game, other teams ran rampant--Jose Molina and Chad Moeller are decent defensive replacements, but can't match Jorge's bat.

Both Posada and Matsui have opted out of season-ending surgery, in an effort to return this season and help out their team. With Tampa Bay in free-fall, both Boston and New York have closed the gap significantly. Right now the BoSox are one game back of first, while the Yanks are 3.5 games behind, and certainly in contention for the Wild Card. 

Continue reading "Two Yankees, Toughing it Out"

As the July 31 deadline approaches, one of the most likely trade candidates mentioned in Seattle-New York trade rumors has been Jarrod Washburn. The Ms would love to shed his massively overpaid salary, while the Yanks need a starter who can eat innings, even if he does it in mediocre, Jarrod-esque fashion. That Wishy-Washburn has been good of late (since a May 21 2IP, 9ER meltdown, he's only given up more than 2 ER in two of his ten starts) makes him seem all the more attractive to the pinstripes.

And today, Peter Abraham reports in his LoHud blog that the Yanks are thinking of a swap that would not only rid the Ms of Washburn, they'd also get to dump anti-DH Jose Vidro, too. In return, the Ms would get Kei Igawa and a "B-level prospect," along with a salary swap that means the Yanks would eat a $7M difference in contracts. Kei Igawa has been a disappointment thus far, though some speculate that he's been suffering from the Bright Lights, Big City effect of pitching in the Big Apple. A move to a smaller market team, especially an Asian-friendly one like Seattle, with fellow J-ball players Ichiro and Kenji Johjima, might be just the thing for Igawa.

Continue reading "Washburn to the Yanks?"

As reported in the stalwart Sports Xchange, the Braves are making moves to their roster that may suggest a possible trade is imminent. First baseman Mark Teixeira is the big name that's been bandied about in baseball, and (except for Brian Fuentes and Matt Holliday, who will either go close to the deadline or not at all) is the Last Man Standing as far as frontline trade candidates go.

What are the Braves doing? They sold reliever Mike Hesop to the J-Ball Hanshin Tigers, and moved Anthony Lerew from the DL to AAA Richmond. This may not mean anything, but it also might mean they're just tidying things up to make a space for any acquisitions, the way you might clear out your in-box before that big project hits your desk.

One of the potential destinations of Teixeira has been the Arizona Diamondbacks, in return for Conor Jackson or Chad Tracy, both fan favorites, but this seems unlikely, unless Arizona thinks it can sign Tex to a long-term deal. They could certainly use another bat, but why make a move for Tex, so soon after snatching up the venerable Tony Clark from San Diego? 

Continue reading "Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop"

In what is largely perceived as his final start in a Mariners' uniform, Jarrod Washburn threw his longest and best start of the year, logging 8 innings of one-run ball, giving up just four hits and walking two against two strikeouts. His only blemish was a solo homer to John McDonald, the Toronto shortstop's first of the year.

Had Washburn pitched like this all year long--his record moves to a pedestrian 5-9, with a 4.50 ERA--perhaps the Mariners wouldn't be wallowing in last place with a shocking 38-65 record. On the other hand, if he hadn't pitched so well (or, worse, got injured) his trade value might have plummeted.

As it is, Washburn should be headed to the Yanks at some point soon, probably in exchange for salary relief against his absurd Bavasi-esque $9.85M. To put that figure in perspective, Brandon Webb makes $5.5M, Daisuke Matsuzaka (the $50M Man) makes $8.33M, John Lackey makes $7.33M, Jake Peavy $6.5M.

Continue reading "Washburn's Farewell"

According to several blogs, including Baseball Digest Daily, Mark Teixeira is headed to the Angels, in exchange for middling 1B Casey Kotchman and minor-league pitcher Stephen Marek, with perhaps others thrown into the mix.

On the face of it, this looks like Atlanta's not following its usual tendency to hold out for full value, and not dump too much for too little. Of course, with Chipper and Tim Hudson on the DL--to say nothing of the three-way NL East race that doesn't include them--they're done for the season. But Schuerholz usually holds his cards for a bit more, rather than pulling the trigger on a lesser deal.

Plenty of people were salivating for the power-hitting, switch-hitting first baseman, and it's hard to imagine that this was the best deal Atlanta could get. Schuerholz was surely entertaining a slew of deals, but there's not a ton of value here. Kotchman is a 25-year-old with good contact skills, very good defense, and almost no power. He's not as good a contact hitter as Lyle Overbay, but that's about the ceiling I'd put on Kotch. 

Continue reading "Tex is an Angel"

There's two reasons for making a deal at the deadline, or around it:

1. You're in contention, and you need to add a player.

2. You're out of contention, and you need to add prospects.

The reasoning is simple: Are you looking for short-term or long-term gain? That is, do you need one more piece to put together a contending team (and hence are willing to sacrifice the future to get it), or are you looking to build for the future? You might take a few chances on some marginal guys if you're in contention, the way the Yanks did on signing Sidney Ponson or Richie Sexson. Otherwise you either stand pat or collect prospects from the guys who are itching for that last piece.

Mariners fans who read my blog have heard me carp about how the Ms seem to be making short-term choices, like platooning a young guy like Jeremy Reed, or holding onto valueless guys like Jose Vidro. 

Continue reading "What is Ed Wade Thinking?"

A few trades of note for Mariners fans--the ones made, the ones not made, and the ones made by other teams. Here are the Top 3 Seattle Deadline Stories:

1. Rhodes is now a Marlin. This was the guy everyone figured the Mariners would deal, and it came through. It makes complete sense, as the Mariners don't need Rhodes down the stretch, for a handful of lefty specialist innings, while the Marlins do. In return, Seattle gets Gaby Hernandez, a once-well-regarded starter who's scuffled at Albuquerque (where every pitcher scuffles), and he'll get a fresh start with Tacoma and the Mariners. He's nobody special, but Rhodes is an aging lefty in a one-year deal, so Lee Pelekoudas got who he could. Nice job, Lee.

2.  Ibanez is still a Mariner. This was the other guy everyone figured the Mariners would deal, but it didn't come through. In spite of last-minute interest from the Blue Jays, as well as talks with the D-backs, Mets, and Cubs. Nothing materialized, and it's too early to know exactly who we turned down for this. But Ibanez is a guy we don't mind keeping, as he'll be a veteran presence for the rest of the season. He's a free agent next year, so Seattle's probably going to lose him regardless, but for a team that's rebuilding. losing him then won't be awful, either. I can't judge this until I know what Seattle refused, but I'm at least glad Lee didn't make a move just to make a move. 

Continue reading "Mariners Deadline Analysis"