What is Ed Wade Thinking?

There's two reasons for making a deal at the deadline, or around it:

1. You're in contention, and you need to add a player.

2. You're out of contention, and you need to add prospects.

The reasoning is simple: Are you looking for short-term or long-term gain? That is, do you need one more piece to put together a contending team (and hence are willing to sacrifice the future to get it), or are you looking to build for the future? You might take a few chances on some marginal guys if you're in contention, the way the Yanks did on signing Sidney Ponson or Richie Sexson. Otherwise you either stand pat or collect prospects from the guys who are itching for that last piece.

Mariners fans who read my blog have heard me carp about how the Ms seem to be making short-term choices, like platooning a young guy like Jeremy Reed, or holding onto valueless guys like Jose Vidro. 

Now I turn my critical eye to Astros GM Ed Wade, wondering if his scuffle with Shawn Chacon earlier this season did more damage than we thought. In brief, what the heck is this guy doing?

Let's set the stage. In the NL Central, there are three teams battling it out for first place: Chicago, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. The first two guys are making moves to solidify their chances, with the Brewers giving up prospects to get (or really, rent) mega-starter CC Sabathia, while the Cubs gave up current major leaguers and prospects for starter Rich Harden. The Cards, thus far, are standing pat.

One of these three teams is going to win the division, and the other two will have a very good shot at winning the Wild Card. Nobody I know thinks otherwise.

Then, you've got the Astros, 12.5 games back in fourth place, with as little chance to contend as the Padres or the Orioles. Houston's got a good team, but not a great one, and they need to look to the future, collecting prospects from other teams who might want, say, Miguel Tejada, as the Red Sox reportedly did.

Instead, GM Ed Wade has been giving up prospects to collect marginal players. Last week, they gave up minor-league pitcher Chad Reineke for the Padres' Randy Wolf, who had a 6-10, 4.74 ERA--and the only good part of that was what he got from pitcher-friendly PETCO Park (5-4, 3.17 ERA).

This didn't make a lick of sense, since if they needed another arm to fill in for Oswalt (injured) or Chacon (released for attacking Ed Wade), they could have brought up a minor-leaguer (like, say, Chad Reineke) or used a bullpen pitcher to start. No sense making a trade for a guy who hasn't been very good in any place not named "PETCO Park."

Then, today, the Astros made a swap for lefty reliever LaTroy Hawkins, giving up minor-league infielder Matt Cusick. Cusick is at single-A and is pretty far from the bigs, but Hawkins hasn't been good at all. In fact, the Yanks had designated him for assignment.

Supposedly, Wade said that he'd wanted to sign both Hawkins and Wade in the offseason, but couldn't. That makes no sense, since in the former case, you're paying payroll and don't know how good you're going to be; now, Wade knows the Astros aren't in contention, so he could have waited until this offseason to grab these guys. Was someone else going to snatch up Hawkins? Or Wolf?

Baseball is a game of long-term strategy, both within the game, the season, and the long horizon of a franchise's future. Wade is giving away draft picks for marginal players like he's getting a premium for doing so, and in the process, selling Houston's future for a competitive present that doesn't exist. 

Economics will tell you that it's sometimes sensible to be a contrarian, buying when everyone else is selling, and vice versa. But that only makes sense if you're getting a bargain, which neither Wolf nor Hawkins has been for some time now.

Maybe there's something we don't know about, a package he's putting together with other teams that required him to bundle up Wolf and Hawkins, and we'll see the fruits of his labors before the deadline tomorrow. Or maybe he sees something in Wolf and Hawkins that we don't, and they'll turn into superstars. Or maybe Wade got an undiagnosed concussion in his tussle with Shawn Chacon, and this is the first signs of it.

Or maybe Ed Wade's just an idiot.