Brewers Grab Durham

If ever there was a sign that the Brewers’ future is now, it’s in their recent acquisition of veteran Ray Durham, who should shore up their leadoff spot, as well as allow Rickie Weeks the time off he sometimes needs when mired in a slump. Since they’ve already gambled their future on C.C. Sabathia—who’s looked amazing so far, winning all three starts and throwing complete games in two of them—it only makes sense for them to do whatever they can to push for the pennant this year.

As I’d pointed out in an earlier blog, Weeks at leadoff is one of the glaring holes in the Brewers lineup. He’s good with the glove, has speed and occasional power, but his .326 OBP is at least twenty-five points below what you want in a leadoff hitter, and reversed a rising OBP trend in the past three seasons. Last year, in spite of a .235 BA, he had a .374 OBP, and had 78 walks to go with his 116 Ks. All of these were improvements over 2006, and Milwaukee had hoped his discipline and eye would continue to get better.

Instead, Weeks has fallen back to his old ways, with his K:BB ratio slipping back to 73:40 and his BA/OBP at .216/.326, His contact rate has been the same, but his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) has dropped almost 100 points since his 2006 season, from an amazing .351 to .287 to .254 this year. That means, most likely, that his luck has diminished—but also it might mean that he’s getting less on the ball.

Some pitchers throw a hittable ball, so it stands to reason that some players hit catchable balls. Being unable to “find the holes” in the defense can be bad luck, or it could be an inability to hit the ball in the right spots. Tony Gwynn had his “5.5 Hole,” the spot between the shortstop and third baseman where a hard grounder can’t be caught. Mark McLemore, who built a career on such hits, famously pointed to the same spot and told a rookie, “There’s 40 million dollars in that hole.”

In his eagerness to pull the ball, Weeks—who wags his bat like Gary Sheffield, but lacks Sheff’s lightning-quick wrists to overcome this habit—hasn’t been finding the holes. Durham, on the other hand, has. Only two seasons ago, Durham had a career high in dingers and slugging, with 26 and .585, respectively. Not bad for a 34-year-old, especially when matched with a .360 OBP. But it was also the first season he’d hit in a power spot in the order, most often fifth. He suddenly thrived in a power spot, not surprising, since the guys hitting in front of him were named Steve Finley, Moises Alou, and Barry Bonds.

The next year, only Bonds was left from that group, and Durham bounced among the third, fourth and fifth spots, either trying too hard or never settling into a rhythm. Bonds was as good as he’d been, but Durham wasn’t, and he had one of his worst years ever, with a .218/.295/.343 that represented career lows in each area. In 2008, Durham’s been either in the second or third hole, most often the former, which represents where his skillset is now. Too slow for leadoff, too light-hitting for an RBI spot, the Giants were using him to spray hits around, which he did well, putting up a very respectable .293/.385/.414.

Now with the Brewers, the question is whether Durham will help them at leadoff, where they must sacrifice Weeks’ speed for Durham’s eye, and whether he can show Weeks the same patience that once made him a very valuable .360+ OBP guy. Speculation for now is that there might be a platoon brewing—as a switch-hitter, Durham has no significant platoon split, but at 36 might get worn down in a full-time role (his swoon last year wasn’t helped by a .165/.256/.247 second half).

Weeks, on the other hand, loses fifty points of BA and sixty OBP points when a righty’s on the hill this season, consistent with (though more severe than) his career splits. Though a righty’s on the hill more often than not, and Ned Yost is standing behind Weeks and saying he won’t platoon the two, he’s also saying that Durham should be in the lineup a few times a week, which boils down to a time-share, whether he calls it that or not. Regardless, Durham should bring veteran leadership to a young clubhouse and should help the Brewers and Weeks in ways that numbers can’t quantify.

The prospects that Milwaukee loses in returns for another likely rental weren’t as big-time as LaPorta and company, but it certainly is a chunk of their future. Darren Ford is a speedster who needs to hone his other skills, while lefty Steve Hammond was once much more highly touted and, at 26, is losing the “prospect” label. Unlike LaPorta, neither one of these guys is part of Milwaukee’s immediate future; still, Milwaukee loses a little more minor-league depth.

If they don’t make the playoffs this year—no small task, considering they’re in the same division as the Cubs and Cards—we may all look back at 2008 as The Year That Got Away for Milwaukee. You’ve got to like their willingness to gamble, but like all gambles, these will only look good if they win.