NL Central Trade Analysis, Part Two

The other big trade that happened recently was the Cubs’ acquisition of the oft-injured Rich Harden from Oakland. This move is typical of Oakland’s business model, which involves shedding young stars before they get too expensive, often in exchange for other young or undervalued stars. In this way, they’re similar to the Florida Marlins, except that the Marlins tend to load up for concentrated runs at the championship (they have as many championships in the last decade as big-market Boston, and more than the Cubs have in the past hundred years), while the A’s tend towards consistent competitiveness.

Likewise, Chicago’s move is typical of a big-market club looking for that last piece to take them over the top—or, in this case, more like the big-market club trying to respond to a big move made by a competitor. When Milwaukee traded for the half-season rental of C.C. Sabathia, Chicago likely felt it had to pull the trigger on a deal, too. It’s hard to delve into the minds of baseball execs, since this deal may have been cooking for some time and the timing is coincidental, but it’s hard to read this any other way. And Buster Olney breaks down the trade at ESPN  showing how both the need for a Sabathia response and a desire for greater depth led to this trade.

Did this hurt Chicago as much as Milwaukee’s deal? Let’s break it down:

Chicago gets:

Righty Rich Harden
Righty Chad Gaudin

Oakland gets:

Righty Sean Gallagher
Outfielder Matt Murton
Infielder/outfielder Eric Patterson
Catcher Josh Donaldson

Harden and Gallagher were the key players in this swap, so we’ll look at them first. Unlike Sabathia, Harden is still under contract through next season, so this is no half-season rental—and the Cubs may have the money to resign him if they want. Nobody can deny that Harden’s got great stuff, but the knock on him has been his durability. He’s had problems with his elbow and shoulder the past two seasons, and crack 130 IP just once at the major-league level, in 2004. So in some ways, this may be a short-season rental, as Harden is a risk to toss a full season in ’08 or ’09. But when he’s in the game, he’s on, consistently logging a high strikeout rate with excellent control and a talent for keeping the ball in the ballpark. If he can stay healthy, he gives the Cubbies a great #2 pitcher behind ace Zambrano.

They gave up Sean Gallagher, who isn’t the kind of blue-chipper that Matt LaPorta (the center of the Sabathia Rental) is, but who is nonetheless a solid prospect (ranked #5 in Chicago’s prospect list by Baseball America). He’s young—just 22—with a good (but not great) fastball and a good (but not great) changeup. He’s still working on his control, but he’s young enough that Oakland feels like he’s going to develop well, or at least well enough, for them to afford in the long term.

Gaudin gives the Cubs depth, and not a lot more than that. He’s a strikeout pitcher who also throws a lot of walks and gives up a lot of hits, who had hip surgery in the offseason. That kept him from starting this year on the roster, but he was brought up quickly to spot-start, and did fairly well in that role, the same position he’ll occupy in Chicago: a middling middle reliever who can toe the slab when they need him to.

Matt Murton may be the underrated element of this trade, as he’s shown promise, but is clearly blocked in the Chicago outfield, with Soriano and Fukodome holding deathgrips on the corner spots. He slides immediately into a starting position in Oakland, where his good batting eye and decent power are just right for them. If he can improve his defense (and he’s already made two excellent plays in his brief time with the A’s) he will be a starter for this year and probably the near future, too. At 26, he still has a few years to improve, and could parlay this trade into a solid, if short, career.

Eric Patterson looks much like his brother Corey, except with a little better batting eye and more pop, and the ability to play at the cornerstone. Though Chicago saw him as an outfielder, Oakland will more likely use him as a utilityman, a position where Chicago’s got plenty of options already. He, too, represents a win-win for himself and Oakland in this trade, while Chicago doesn’t lose much.

Josh Donaldson is another guy with potential, though he’s a few years away from the bigs right now. BA gives him #7 ranking in Chicago’s farm system, but he’s still in A-ball, where he mashed last season. With Kurt Suzuki ahead of him, Oakland doesn’t need him anytime soon, but he’s less blocked here than he was in Chicago, with super rookie Geovany Soto looking like their Catcher of the Future. Kurt Klutch in Oakland is also the COF, but if Donaldson is ready in a year or two, that should coincide with Suzuki’s entrance into the Unaffordable territory of Oakland’s business model.

So overall, this is a good, if not great, trade for Chicago, where they don’t lose as much—at least in the sense of losing irreplaceable or red-hot commodities—as Milwaukee, at a slightly greater risk. Oakland certainly wins, as they shed the risky Harden in return for an everyday outfielder—Travis Buck wasn’t cutting it and Ryan Sweeney’s hurt—a utilityman with good upside, and two good prospects. Chicago assumed some risk, while giving themselves a much better shot to put together a complete, pennant-winning team than the Brewers did by acquiring Sabathia.

Even though they seemed like they were making a reactionary move, in fact Chicago’s was just the right sort of last-piece move that a team on the brink of big-time success should be making. But, in the long run, I see Oakland as getting the better half of this one, continuing their tradition of putting a consistently competitive, if not ever unbeatably great, team on the field.

The small market, long-term mindset of Oakland wins again.