NL Central Trade Analysis, Part One

Still playing ketchup here, trying to make up for a four-day absence from the blog, so I want to start with the big trade of last week, the CC Sabathia swap. The usefulness of this deal to the Brewers is a little dubious, as CC is likely to be a half-season rental, but let’s break it down:

Milwaukee gets the portly lefty Sabathia, who is one year removed from a Cy Young season that not only saw him strike out 209 (versus only 37 walks) and give up just 238 hits in 241 innings. And as impressive as the other numbers are, it’s that last one that should give teams pause. That’s a lot of innigns to hang on any young arm, especially one attached to a body that pushes 300 pounds.

In recent seasons, Sabathia’s been a slow starter, reversing the typical trend among young pitchers, who tend to start strong, then fade down the stretch, their arms unaccustomed to a full season’s workload. He had those sort of splits early in his career, but as he aged (and his weight ballooned out) he started to change directions.

It took him longer and longer to get into shape for the seasons, but—like the big bus that he is—once he got moving, he became unstoppable. Last ear, his ERA was .82 lower in the second half, his hit rate per game dropped, and his strikeouts remained steady. This year, his abysmal 7.88 ERA, 1-4 start in the first two months has been well-balanced by a 2-3. 2.44 May and 1.89, 3-1 June.

This bodes well for the rest of the Brewers’ season, as they can expect solid numbers from Sabathia, but they would be well-advised to pass on re-signing the big lefty after this season is over. Not only can’t they afford his pricetag—especially as they look to lock up another portly lefty, Prince Fielder, to a long-term deal at the same time—they shouldn’t look for good things from C.C. in the future. The workload and physique he’s developed means he’s going to go downhill fast.

So he’s a half-season rental for Milwaukee, who had to pay a hefty rental fee for this hefty lefty. In return for two-and-a-half months of Sabathia, they gave up:

Left fielder Matt LaPorta (#1 Brewers prospect, according to BA’s Prospect Handbook and ranked in the 25-30 slots of most overall prospect lists)
Righty Rob Bryson (#11 BA Brewers prospect)
Pitcher Zach Jackson
That famous PTBNL (Player To Be Named Later)

LaPorta was the key piece of the deal; he’s a power hitter who can hit to all fields, the only two-time SEC Player of the Year, and sure to make a big-league impact sooner rather than later. He alone was a big price to pay, but when you throw in three more guys, it really starts to tip the scales in favor of the Indians. Bryson is a fastball-slider pitcher who can throw both pitches very well, though he’s still in A ball. Jackson was once highly regarded, but fell flat in a brief peek at the big-league level in 2006 (2-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) and didn’t do much better in AAA last year, going 11-10 with a 4.45/1.46 ERA/WHIP. Maybe Cleveland saw something promising in the lefty Jackson—who has continued to struggle in AAA with a 7.85 ERA before the trade—or maybe Milwaukee just wanted to unload him.

Even if Cleveland cuts him right away, they got full value for a pitcher they couldn’t have re-signed after this year anyway. He’d already turned down their 4 year, $18-million extension in spring training, and given his probable downslide, this should be fortunate on Cleveland’s part.

As for Milwaukee, they gave up a lot to get another arm at the top of their rotation, something they sorely need, but will it be enough? The high cost of obtaining Sabathia could be justified if he’s the Final Piece needed to launch them into contention. But there’s much to indicate that the Brew Crew still need more.

For one thing, they’re in a really tough division. In spite of putting together the best record in baseball since May 20, they are still in third in the NL Central, five games behind the Cubs and one game behind the Cards. This is no insurmountable lead, but is adding just one pitcher enough to make this more than just a better three-way race?

The Cubs got stronger by bringing in Rich Harden, a deal that at least didn’t hurt their present lineup, while the Cards continue to do more with less, something that’s helped by the recent return of Albert Pujols from the DL, and the possible return of ace Chris Carpenter from TJ surgery in July or August.

And starting pitching isn’t all that the Brewers need to be a contending team. Their starters have a 4.06 ERA, but their relievers have a 4.07 ERA, and their overall ERA is seventh in the NL. Homers have been the bane of both starters and bullpen, as only the Reds, Astros, and Pirates have given up more (and look at the records of those teams!)

Defensively, they’re 12th in the NL with a .982 fielding percentage and are seventh in errors. Thanks to boppers like Ryan Braun, they’re fourth in the NL in slugging percentage, but only ninth in OBP and twelfth in batting average. While JJ Hardy has been hitting well of late, their leadoff hitter Rickie Weeks has an OBP of .321, marginal for any player, let alone a top-of-the-order guy, and that’s been declining every month (.289 for July, after .309 for June).

Now, the trading season’s not over yet, with the deadline still about three weeks away, so it’s possible that Milwaukee may fill some of these holes soon. But they’ve depleted much of their minor league prospects—certainly their blue-chipper LaPorta—that would help them make such a deal. And it’s possible that the energy Sabathia brings to the team will also bring up everyone’s level of play, and their defense will improve, they’ll start getting on base more, and everything will come together. I’m not saying they won’t.

But that’s a lot to expect from a half-season rental trade, and they’re betting a good chunk of their future on it. Gamble big to win big, but better be ready in case you fail. I’m an advocate of the long-term view taken by the teams on the other side of these kind of deals—but you can read more about that tomorrow.