Crowded Outfield—No More!

While injuries to starters typically can devastate a team, the injuries to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ outfield this season have, in fact, been helpful for the team’s future. Losing Andruw Jones and then Juan Pierre has meant more playing time for their young hotshots Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, something Torre was either unwilling or unable to do, perhaps because he was stuck by the same “play the most who you pay the most” philosophy that has plagued the Mariners.

When reversed, as I discussed a few days ago in the context of Toronto’s new skipper Cito Gaston, you not only get a good view of your team’s future, you also send a clear message to all players, veteran and rookie, that performance will be the only metric by which they’ll gain playing time. Now, of course, the Dodgers are unlike the Mariners and Blue Jays, in that they’re actually competitive, but in the case of Ethier and Kemp, that doesn’t make a difference. These are the guys who have been playing anyway.

Let’s look at Andruw Jones’ stats in the past three-plus seasons:

2005        .263/.347/.575    51 HR, 128 RBI, 95 R, 586 AB
2006        .262/.363/.531    41 HR, 129 RBI, 107 R, 565 AB   
2007        .222/.311/.413    26 HR,  94 RBI, 83 R, 572 AB
2008        .165/.273/.271    2 HR, 7 RBI, 18 R, 133 AB

Ever since that plateau in ’05-’06, Jones has been awful and getting awfuller—projected out over the season (pretending he hasn’t been hurt for the past month-plus), he might break double-digit homers and perhaps 30 RBI. His plate discipline has declined, his power nearly vanished, as he suddenly thought he was a home-run hitter and tried swinging from the heels at every at-bat. This is a precipitous dropoff that’s simply Enronian.

Why Los Angeles thought they needed him and Juan Pierre both is a mystery. Here are Pierre’s numbers since 2004, his last really good year:

2004        .326/.374/.407    45 BB, 35 K, CT 95% EYE 1.28
2005        .276/.326/.354    41 BB, 45 K, CT 93% EYE .91
2006        .292/.330/.388    32 BB, 38 K, CT 95% EYE .84
2007        .293/.331/.353    33 BB, 37 K, CT 94% EYE .89
2008        .277/.327/.318    17 BB, 17 K, CT 94% EYE 1.00

From this trend, it’s obvious that 2006 was a slight blip upwards on a declining trend. He can still make contact with the ball (CT%) but his batting eye is slipping—we can likely expect that 1.00 ratio this year to dip somewhat, as the sample space is relatively small—and his speed is vanishing. While he can still steal bases at a pretty decent clip, we can see from his slugging that Pierre (who legs out doubles down the lines rather than bombing them into the gaps) isn’t stretching those singles into doubles, or doubles into triples anymore. Last year, his doubles dropped from 32 to 24 and his triples from 13 to 8.

This is a guy who will, at best, repeat his subpar 680 OPS from 2007, and though his speed seems enticing, it’s really only reflected in his ability to swipe second. And he isn’t a centerfielder anymore—but instead of moving him, the Dodgers brought on Andruw Jones, meaning they had one spot for both Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, their outfielders of the future.

Who the heck are they? Matt Kemp is regarded by many as one of the best young power-hitting outfielders in the majors. After ripping up the minors with a .311/.359/.519 line in 5 seasons, with double-and-homer power (158 combined in 1579 ABs) that makes big-league scouts slobber uncontrollably. Kemp had nothing more to prove at age 21, so he came up to the bigs, with a .253/.289/.448 line in 2006, with 15 of his 39 hits going for extra bases. His 53:9 K:BB ratio (.17 EYE) was troubling, but he worked on it in the minors last year, and returned to lay down a .342/.373/.521 line, with an improved 66:16 K:BB ratio (.24 EYE). 27 of his 47 hits went for extra bags, and 2008 was supposed to be his year to prove himself in full-time play.

Andre Ethier is another youngster with scads of talent. With a similarly impressive minor league line of .314/.384/.458/.842, he coupled a slightly lower power profile (99 combined doubles and homers in 1228 ABs) with a far better batting eye (131 BBs against 204 Ks, a very nice .64 EYE). In 2006, he did well enough in part-time action (.308/.365/.477, .44 EYE) for the Dodgers to get him 447 ABs in 2007, where he also didn’t disappoint, with a .284/.350/.452 line, a .67 EYE, and a nice rise in extra-base hits. 2008, too, was meant to be the year where Ethier was to shine.

Instead, management couldn’t move Pierre or Jones, and Torre was stuck with four outfielders and two spots. Kemp has played center, but not well, and Ethier is certainly a corner man. Playing two of them with Jones would have been a good solution, but instead, Torre has played mostly Pierre and Kemp, trying to ride the hot hand in a tough situation. Nobody’s done particularly well, with Pierre turning in the bad-getting-worse stats above, while Kemp is turning in a .284/.331/.436 line (with 81 Ks against 20 BBs) and Ethier plugging away at .271/.334/.424. Sometimes, when you try and please everyone, you end up pleasing no one.

And other times, things sort themselves out. Pierre slid into second last night and wrenched his knee, and now he’s hit the 15-day DL with an MRI scheduled tomorrow. The Dodgers have called up Jason Repko, a middling outfielder, but Pierre’s misfortune could be the Dodgers shot to see their future, and perhaps enhance their present. If you ask me, they're better off in the short- and long-term with Kemp and Ethier out there on a daily basis--they're bound to improve, while Jones and Pierre seemed bound for The Tank.

We’ll also see for sure whether Torre is juggling Kemp and Ethier because management wants him to use Pierre, or whether he’s just a manager who’s good with veterans. Looking back on his Yankees career, he was always better at handling the older guys than nurturing the new ones. Jeter and Pettitte are the only two young players I can think of offhand who really flourished under Joe’s tenure.