Rebuild!

I'm going to deliberately provoke the ire of my easily ire-provokable friend/reader Drano by using horse racing once again as a blog segue (blogue? Have I created a word here?) For those who aren't privy to our emails--which is anyone outside of the NSA, I suppose--Drano doesn't like that I've mentioned a failed Triple Crown in horse racing while utterly failing to mention the victory of his team in the exciting Stanley Cup that happened a few weeks back. His team . . . the Stanley Cup . . . darned if I can't remember the name of his team or the sport he follows so avidly . . . but anyway, on to horse racing and baseball . . .

When it became obvious at this year's Belmont Stakes that Big Brown would not be the winner, jockey Kent Desormeaux pulled his horse up. That's the racing term for pulling back on the reins and slowing down a horse at the end of the race, when it becomes obvious that he's not going to win. It's done when the jockey feels there might be a health problem and that pushing the horse might hurt him in a race the horse no longer had any chance of winning. It made history, as Big Brown became the first TC-eligible horse to finish dead last--but better dead last than merely dead.

This is often a wise choice in sports, to give up an unwinnable race in order to preserve oneself (or one's team) for the future. It's a choice that the Mariners and their new brain trust of Pelekoudas and Riggleman would do well to follow, instead of the cobbled-together squad they're using right now. They're 19.5 games out of the AL West, a woeful 28-50, and the only race they're in right now is one to ensure they're not the first team with a $100M+ payroll to lose 100 games. 

I'm generally not the advocate of throwing in the towel before the All-Star Break, but this year's Mariners seem to be an exception. Their pitchers can't seem to stay healthy, perhaps overburdened from trying to carry a weak offense on their backs, while Riggleman and Co. make moves seemingly intended for this year rather than the future.

Take the situation in center field. John McLaren, in an effort to demote Wladimir Balentien and perhaps jumpstart Ichiro's fading bat, asked the Japanese superstar if he wouldn't mind shifting back to right field. Ichiro immediately accepted, and the Mariners sent a struggling Balentien to work on his batting eye in Tacoma. This makes a certain amount of sense, even for a team that's battling merely for respectability. No sense working Ichiro too hard or ruining Balentien's confidence altogether.

Who replaces Ichiro in center? Well, there's Jeremy Reed, who occupied that spot before Ichiro took over in 2006, and who has had trouble hitting lefties. A team looking to win might put him in a platoon, giving up on him ever hitting lefties. A team looking to the future rather than the present would go ahead and put him out there full-time to see if he can figure out lefties. Who cares if he flails for a while? Let the guy try and prove himself in a season that no longer matters.

Instead, the Ms have gone with Option A, platooning him with supersub Willie Bloomquist. It's worked fairly well so far--the pair have a combined BA over .400--but the cost is two-fold. First, any further development of Reed is delayed, perhaps forever. The longer they put him in a platoon, the more he's going to be resigned (in both his own mind and those around him) to being a permanent platoon player, a disservice to him and a possible waste of a roster spot down the road.

The other problem this creates is losing Bloomquist as a supersub. Bloomy can play several positions adequately, which is all that's asked of a utility player, but when he starts, you lose having him on the bench. And unlike Reed, Bloomquist has had his chance--in his seven seasons, he's hit .260/.317/.325, with 222 Ks against 90 BBs, and all seven seasons have been 80-90 or more games. Good numbers for a utilityman, but crummy for an outfielder, even a platoon player. And he's been exposed, collecting 1167 ABs.

Reed, on the other hand, has never really had a shot after 2005, when he played 141 games and racked up an unimpressive .254/.322/.352--his career line is similar to Bloomquist's, at .257/.318/.369, but in only 842 ABs, and never more than 67 games in a season since 2005. Some of that has been due to injury, but far more interesting is to see his platoon splits. Reed has gathered 705 of his 842 ABs against righties, so his platoon status is based on just 136 ABs spread over mostly part-time work in five seasons.

Bloomy, on the other hand has been exposed to 438 ABs against lefties (vs. 729 as righties). He's had his chances, and has shown a relatively even platoon split, leaning more (80 OPS points higher) to the lefties. Reed's is more severe (253 points better against righties) but over a much smaller sample space.

The long-term solution, of course, is to give Reed a chance against lefties. Even in 2005, he only got 105 ABs against lefties, and he was only 24 at the time. He's hitting his age-27 peak now, and instead of seeing his worth, he's sharing time with a 30-year-old who's established himself as a substitute with a slight platoon split. 

There are other courses, too, such as bringing up Charlton Jimerson for another look in center (too bad we lost our future CF Adam Jones in Bavasi's massive Bedard Buyout Bust). Or trade for a center fielder, even a minor leaguer, shedding some of the overpriced talent like Sexson, Vidro, Washburn, or any of Bavasi's other bloated signings.

Many other moves could be made for the future, like just dumping some of those same overpaid slobs, since it's unlikely that any other MLB team saw the value in them that Bavasi did when signing them to long-term, high-priced deals. Clement and Johjima are currently sharing time at catcher, an absurdity given the paucity of talent at other positions. Those guys should be full-timers: Johjima, because he's earned it and Clement to see how he'll do in a full-time gig. DH one of 'em and toss out Vidro.

These are the things you do when you're reaching the halfway point of a race you know you can't win. Don't push the horse and risk hurting it further. Pull up and go easy and save your strength for next year. Let's see some of these other guys play, even if it's the whole damn Rainier roster we bring up; we already know what Washburn, Vidro, Silva, Sexson, et al. can do.

If you want to bring the fans back, it's OK to concede at this point, but promote the future, let us know that you're looking beyond the Bavasi Era to make some real changes that we can look forward to. Don't keep pretending you can still contend this year. We know you can't, so ease off the accelerator, pull back on the reins, and show us a glimpse of what the Mariners still could be.