Bittten by the Injury Bug

Two huge injury developments last night--one to one of the best all-around hitters in the game, and the other to an outfielder who's been red-hot the past few weeks. Both injuries should have big implications to their teams, one likely more than the other, and to the NL Central.

The first was to Alfonso Soriano, left fielder and leadoff hitter for the Cubs, owners of the best record in baseball. A pitch from Jeff Bennett cracked the fourth metacarpal of his left hand, right around the knuckle, and he'll be out for six weeks. By chance, I once broke this same bone in my left hand playing softball, and he's going to have problems with his grip until that bone gets completely healed. My bone was broken farther down in the hand, and the fact that Soriano's break is near the knuckle should make it even harder for him to regain his grip.

The effect that this will have on the Cubs will be moderately bad--offensively, they're losing the sparkplug at the top of their lineup, and a guy who hit .345/.386/.672 last month, after coming back from a strained calf, and was hitting .263/.310/.553 in June. The Cubs are left without a true leadoff hitter, but plenty of good bats still in their lineup. Defensively, Mark DeRosa will likely slide into left field and Mike Fontenot will return to second base, a spot he occupied with some success last year and occasionally this year. He'll be across the keystone from fellow LSU Tiger Ryan Theriot, and these two seemed to make each other better in those spots last season, so Chicago fans hope for more of the same. But neither Fontenot nor DeRosa are leadoff guys, so Theriot might move back up to the top spot in the order.

In today's game, they've got Eric Patterson in left field and hitting leadoff, which could be a more suitable replacement if he can get hot, at least in the short term. He's in the mold of Corey--his older brother--in that he's a speedy guy with a haflway decent bat, but Eric has more pop than Corey, even if he often sacrifices at-bats to try and hit longballs. He's a converted second baseman who's currently blocked there and by the Cubs outfield corners, so if he can show some plate discipline, that might make him an enticing trade commodity when Soriano returns.

The other injury was to Albert Pujols, one of the best hitters around. A friend emailed me about my Manny Ramirez paean a few days back to counter that Pujols was a far better hitter, and my response to him (both in the blog post and now) is that Pujols hasn't had the longevity of Manny, and is just starting to show the wear and tear of playing baseball every day. Pujols has been one of the top five hitters in baseball since he burst onto the scene in 2001, with 5 straight years of .300/.400/.500 ball (including four straight .300/.400/.600 years). That's only seven years, however, and Manny's been doing his magic consistently for almost fifteen.

One of the reasons this injury isn't quite as surprising is that Pujols has been playing for at least the past two seasons with an injured ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm. The Cardinals said at the start of this season that they would delay surgery on the ligament--which hasn't affected Pujols at the plate, even if he can't straighten his right arm--until mid-season or the off-season, depending on how the team performed. Because they've been contending, Pujols continued to play. The specter of that ligament has lingered, however, and the team knew it might blow out at any moment, so the notion of playing without Phat Albert has been something that LaRussa and the Cards have at least contemplated since spring training.

The effect on the team, however, may be quite different. Although the best-case scenario for his strained calf is a three-week absence, it's possible he could be out longer--and in the meantime, the Cards lose the heart of their lineup, the guy who drives in runs and makes the hitters ahead of him that much better. Ryan Ludwick, one of their surprises this year, often hits in front of Pujols, and will lose that protection. He sometimes hits behind Albert, as does Rick Ankiel, and both have benefited from having another guy aboard to drive in. 

Replacing Pujols offensively and defensively will probably be Chris Duncan, who will be a huge step down in both areas. Duncan was expected to continue hitting longballs this season, but failed to do so and was demoted to AAA Memphis to try and find his swing. But he's struggled there, too, with a .160/.300/.240 line in seven games. He's going to have to find that stroke quickly, or he'll suffer along with the Redbirds. And he's merely an adequate defender at first, while Pujols is a Gold Glover.

Injuries are those lightning strikes that can alter the destiny of a team: you know they're going to hit, but you hope it's not you. Soriano was one of those strikes, the product of a too-close fastball and his too-slow reaction time. Albert's injured calf, on the other hand, had been bothering him for a week or so, and it had also sidelined him at the end of last season. The Cardinals couldn't afford to sit him very much, and so he played through it, eventually breaking down.

That's asking to be hit by lightning, but it's one of those decisions managers have to make, and shows how much more the Cardinals need Pujols. The Cubs should continue to perform at a high level, while the Cardinals should lose ground on them, possibly falling behind the Brew Crew if Albert misses more than three weeks. But the NL Central is weaker either way, and if both teams collapse, Milwaukee might be the beneficiaries of these two big injuries.