Cincinnati's Youth Movement

Easily the biggest news anywhere in baseball this past week was the long-anticipated callup of Jay Bruce, savior-in-waiting for Cincinnati and #1 prospect by most of the writers in the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. With Cincy wallowing in last place in a revitalized NL Central that offers not only the surprising Cardinals, but also the resurgent Astros and the overachieving Bucs, it seems that Reds management is ready to bring out the big guns--or at least begin the rebuilding process. As further signal of the latter possibility, they called up Andy Phillips and sent down Corey Patterson, someone only a vet-lover like Dusty Baker still considered a serviceable outfielder.

While everyone's ready to anoint Bruce as this year's Ryan Braun, one of the many questions about bringing up Bruce now is how he will fare under Dusty Baker, not a manager known for nurturing youngsters. It was like pulling teeth for him to finally grant Joey Votto--the Reds' other uberprospect--the first-base job at the start of the season, and all Joey's done is hit .294/.362/.544 since then. Still, even the stubborn Baker had to see that a centerfield consisting of Corey "At Least I Run Fast" Patterson and Ryan "Demolition Derby" Freel wasn't going to cut it. (About the only nice thing about putting Freel in center is that it gives him fewer walls to smack into).

And so The Bruce has arrived, beginning his career with a 3-3 performance, with a double, 2 RBI and 2 walks. Granted, these are all small sample sizes, and this debut (which Baker called one of the best he's ever seen) has been tempered by his 1-6 performance since (albeit with two more walks and only one K). What can we expect from Bruce and, as importantly, the Reds?

Bruce should be easier to project, though he's no Ryan Braun either with bat or glove. His batting eye is adequate, with a career K:BB ratio approaching 3:1, but this is balanced by his outstanding overall makeup as a hitter. He's got a sweet lefty swing, a quick bat and a good head on his shoulders, and should approach 30-40 homers in the next few years, if not sooner. He won't steal too many bases, but who needs to, if he's got Votto and Dunn hitting behind him? 

Defensively, he fits better in right than center, though even there, he's a step up from Freel or Patterson. His arm is good, he takes good routes to fly balls, but he'll never be a Gold Glover. Some day, they'll need to put him in right field, but for that to happen, they're going to have to move Griffey (see my earlier blog for thoughts on this) before that happens, and find a better CF, perhaps when other prospects Chris Dickerson or Drew Stubbs are ready. Lord knows they won't be helping themselves any by bringing up Patterson again. 

What does Bruce do for the Reds this season? It certainly helps them offensively, as the middle of their lineup is now crammed with Griff, Bruce, Dunn, Brandon Phillips, and Votto. Except for Dunn, any of these guys can hit 2-5, and Dunn can hit anywhere but the first two spots in the order. Unless and until they move Junior--and even thereafter--Baker's going to have plenty of fun messing around with that group, trying to find the combo that fits. As baseball's best homer park experiences warmer weather, the fans in the outfield stands are going to be getting a ton of souvenirs from these guys.

As with any team, success for the Reds will depend more on pitching and defense, and while Bruce can help the latter, he can't do much about the former, except help the team score so many runs that their pitchers won't care how they pitch. Really, though, their starters are as strong as they've ever been. Volquez continues to be lights out (7-2, 1.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), Harang is mostly good (a hard-luck 2-7 record, with a 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, marred by three awful starts where he gave up 6, 5 and 5 runs), and Arroyo rounding into shape (7 ER in his last 5 starts, after surrendering that many in just one inning on May 4). Cueto's still learning, Josh Fogg is little more than a placeholder as the fifth starter, and building a bullpen bridge to stud closer Cordero is embarrassingly hard--the Reds' middle relief corps apparently believe that the "middle" refers to their stats, which are dreadfully average, if not worse. 

In any other division, they might have a fighting chance at contention, but it's going to be tough sledding when they have to face their NL Central rivals on a regular basis. And, as I've said before, the warming weather at Great American not only helps their hitters, but also the opposition, and Reds pitchers might develop whiplash from watching those longballs fly.

So Bruce is a good sign of things to come, but the "To Come" must be strongly emphasized. Anyone who thinks that he suddenly makes them a postseason contender is going to be sorely disappointed as the season develops. Take a lesson from our President and keep your expectations low--that way, if they end the season at .500 (or if Baker has an approval rating in the low thirties) it seems a pleasant surprise.