Those Amazing Indians

Major League, one of the funniest baseball movies around, told the tale of the woeful Cleveland franchise, so mired in mediocrity that their owner sought to cash in on them finishing in the cellar. It seemed like a good bet. The hapless Cleveland franchise hadn't tasted the postseason since 1954, and hadn't won a world title since 1948, one of the longest pennantless streaks in baseball. But ever since that 1989 movie--wherein, of course, the built-to-fail Indians defied their owner's devious plans--their consistent failure hasn't been a good bet. 

A string of five straight postseason appearances through the nineties, including a World Series defeat at the hands of the Braves, has led to a more winning attitude. They reached the playoffs in 2001, only to lose to the Mariners, and then fell one out short of the World Series in last year's AL championship. 

Sometimes when a team gets that close but falls short, its spirit is broken; in the case of the 2008 Indians, they seem energized and ready to overcome that final hump and get themselves into the series again. They struggled out of the gates, with last year's Cy Young Award winner C.C. Sabathia (the "C.C." evidently stands for Calorie Count, another stat in which the nearly 300 lb. hurler led the league in 2007) waddling out to a 1-5 record in his first 7 starts, with a 7.52 ERA. The team only won 7 of its first 19 games, and many people figured their backs had been broken by last year's disappointment.

But since April 20, they've gone 15-7, and their starters went through a string of 44-1/3 scoreless innings, the most since the Orioles tossed 54 straight in 1974, and the Indians longest since 1948, the last year they won the Series. Cliff Lee in particular has been lights out, starting out the season 6-0, with a microscopic 0.67 ERA and WHIP. Five of his starts have been shutouts, and two of them complete game shutouts. It's a mind-blowing beginning for a guy dangled in trade talks over the winter and generally considered to be a middle-of-the-road starter. 

The Cleveland offense hasn't been staggeringly good, with a team OBP of only .316 and stars like Hafner mustering a moribund .662 OPS, but when your pitching is so strong, you don't need too many runs. In fact, the Indians trail their opponents this year in virtually every offensive category except the ones that count: runs and RBI. Can they keep up this pace and emerge from a potentially bruising AL Central, including a revived Royals team and White Sox and Tiger squads who will certainly play better as the season goes along.

In some ways, it's a half-full/half-empty glass proposition. Statisticians will tell you that the amazing pitching starts will eventually regress to the mean. That is, Cliff Lee will soon enough start pitching like Cliff Lee has in years past, and put up enough poor numbers to bring that startling 0.67/0.67 line back up to his career average of 4.38/1.33. But these same statisticians will tell you that Hafner's not likely to continue hitting .218, and that teammates Peralta, Blake, and Garko will likely improve their performances, too. Will their predicted offensive surge match their pitching swoon, or will one or the other continue its nonstatistical trend? Probably depends on which line you feel is more out of whack.

Something else to consider is Cleveland's fluid bullpen situation, part of the reason they coughed up that late lead against the BoSox last year. Their closer Joe Borowski, a shaky endgame guy when healthy, has been on the DL with a strained triceps muscle. In the meantime his setup man Rafael Betancourt, one of the best eighth-inning men in 2007, has been closing in his place, but has been struggling.

After giving up three runs to Toronto to take the loss on May 12, Betancourt pitched himself into a jam today, loading the bases with one out. Masa Kobayashi, the career saves leader in Japan and an offseason acquisition for Cleveland, came on to record the last two outs, allowing one run to score on a passed ball with his second pitch. Kobayashi looked strong after that temporary bout of wildness, and it's likely he'll be given the endgame nod next time, at least until Borowski returns later this week or next. Whether, how and when Borowski returns to the closer role will be an interesting choice for Indians manager Eric Wedge, but at least Kobayashi has shown his value. 

This key aspect of finishing games may determine the Indians' success this season, and whether they can hold the lead late in an important playoff and take the team back to the Series. With the way they've been pitching this season and the fire they've shown in close games, I wouldn't bet against them.