Junior Back in Seattle?

One of the talked-about items in two of my fave teams (Reds and Mariners) is the possible return of Griffey to the place where he got his start. Seattle's been scouting him, and there's a bit of a buzz, but it's not much more than idle talk at this point, but it's an interesting feel-good possibility that could help out both teams. Let's look at the pros and cons and possible stumbling blocks:

Pros (Reds):

They get out from under Griffey. Whether it's a curse, bad luck, or some combination thereof, Griffey's stay in Cincinatti have taken him from sure-thing HOFer and Home Run King to injury-riddled Mr. What Might Have Been. He's still going to make the Hall and the 600 HR club, but his seven-plus seasons with the Reds have been a disappointment. His peak year was his first, where he appeared in 145 games and racked up 40 dingers, 118 RBI and 100 R, but it was a slight downtick. It was also his last fully healthy season with the Reds.

Every season thereafter would see him hobbled by one injury or another, so that when he managed 144 games in 2007 (before ending the year prematurely with a groin strain), it was hailed as a victory. His line for the year? .277 BA/.372 OBP/.496 SLG, with 93 RBI and 78 R. A solid season, but (in the context of Griffey's promise) an average one for him.

The Reds will also clear the path (one would hope) for their #1 prospect Jay Bruce, who's idling his time in the minors, waiting to be called up and carry the Reds to the postseason (or so the dreaming goes). Whether he will be nurtured by veteran-friendly Dusty Baker is another story, but his time is now, and unless they're willing to take a subpar glove in center (to match the subpar gloves of Freel and Corey Patterson, one of whom they'd need to move if Griff stays and Bruce comes up), they've got to move Junior to do it. 

Pros (Seattle):

Bringing Griff home to the city that still has a soft spot for him would provide a spark to their moribund, underproducing team. The 326-foot right field fence would be tempting for Griff to yank a few, and (unlike all-or-nothing sluggers Sexson and Beltre) Griffey knows how to take a walk now and again. His return would be the feel-good story of the year and might propel the Ms to the top of a weak division. His veteran clubhouse presence would help young guys like Wladimir Balentien, Jeff Clement, Yuniesky Betancourt, possibly counteracting the lack of presence by vets like Sexson and Beltre. Seems a perfect veteran-buddy match for Raul Ibanez. 

Cons (Reds):

As always with a trade, it would depend upon what they get in return. Seattle's got a good farm system with some strong arms and middle infielders, as well as a few outfield prospects. They need to get good value for him, without getting too greedy. Bruce could fill in for them in right, assuming it's not too soon to thrust him into the limelight. They have the least downside to this deal.

Cons (Mariners):

Of course, it will depend upon what they get for him, and they'll likely have to convince him to DH, his best fit as an older, injury-prone outfielder. That would mean they have a logjam with recent callup Jeff Clement, a strong-hitting catcher who's stuck behind Johjima and his recently renewed contract. There could be an interesting rotation among Griff and Balentien in DH/RF, and Clement at C/DH, each one of them getting a day off now and again.  

Contracts would be an issue with Griff, too, as they'd want to pick up his option and possibly work on an extension (with his no-trade clause, Junior might demand this prior to a trade). "Renting" Griffey for the rest of the season would utterly undermine any feel-good aspect of this potential deal. And, of course, they're assuming the downside of his injury risk and aging skills. He's got another year or two in his bat, possibly more if his luck turns around, but they can't get tied to him for too long at too high a price.

So the Reds have everything to gain, while the Ms have everything to lose. Depending on the terms of the deal, this could be another Junor disaster or the last piece of the puzzle to bring the Mariners back to the playoffs. Personally, I like the intangibles of seeing Griffey back in an M's uni, but hope that Seattle doesn't sell the farm to get this deal done.