The Reds went all homer-happy over the Cubs last night, and Edinson Volquez twirled a gem on the mound, leading the Reds commentators and Steve Phillips on ESPN to go all gushy on them, proclaiming the future is now and they're gonna take the NL Central. Is this the case?
I was raised a Reds fan, and have a soft spot for guys like Griffey and Dunn (he of the Three True Outcomes--K, BB, or HR--at each at-bat) and like the scrappiness of Ryan Freel (whose dirty uniform covers up his light hitting and whose wall-crashing ways hurt him more often than they help the team) and Brandon Phillips, he of the revived career. Their starting pitchers do seem to be formidable, and Francisco Cordero should shut down the game, if they can get through the shaky bullpen in between.
Are they for real? Joey Votto is hitting out of his skull right now, and one wonders if his power will disappear as pitchers get a better handle on him. At least he's got the starting 1B job free and clear, after Dusty Baker's torrid love affair with Scott Hatteberg finally went sour (shortly after I dumped Votto from my fantasy squad, I should add). Griffey's had a slow start, but he should heat up as the weather does, in homer-friendly Great American Ballpark.
GAB is one of the best hitters' parks in the country, which doesn't bode well for the future of youngsters like Volquez, Cueto, and the already homer-prone Harang and Arroyo. And just as pitchers will adjust to Votto, so will batters adjust to the New Kids on The Bump. Dusty Baker's also got a bad history of ruining arms with overuse (just ask Kerry Wood and Mark Prior) and favoring grownups over rookies. Their defense is subpar, with every position's Range Factor below the league average, and every position below average in fielding percentage, except for SS and 2B. None of these bode well for Cincy's future, except that every visiting team must contend with the same cozy dimensions of a sun-warmed GAB.
This certainly doesn't mean they're going to fall flat on their faces, but it does suggest that their future is still in the future and not in the present. I'm going to cheer for them while they keep winning (and when they don't) but rumors of their imminent ascendancy are greatly exaggerated.
