Pat Burrell vs. Bobby Abreu

On the other site I write for, I got into it with a Phillies fan over the way Phils fans ride players right out of town. After defending Dick Allen, the irascible 60s slugger who earned nothing but scorn from Philly fans in spite of his powerful numbers, I offered some more modern examples of guys who have earned the scorn of Phillies fans. First was Abreu, a nice enough guy with a good eye and little pop and whose biggest flaw seems to be his tendency to take a walk, rather than swing at a pitch outside the zone. Phillies fans ran him out of town on a rail.

Then there's Burrell, who has often been booed but my Phillies counterpart insisted was now being roundly cheered. I expressed surprise, as IMHO Burrell was someone more deserving of a lusty boo than Abreu, as his production was lower. I was invited to compare the production of the two of them over the past three years, and was surprised at the result. Here's what I found: 

Over the past three seasons (2005-2008), their stats are nearly identical, with Burrell flashing more power (.503 vs .460 SLG) but striking out more (411 vs 387), and Abreu scoring more runs (325 vs 235) and stealing more bases (86 vs. 0). You might say that Burrell somewhat makes up for his SO with BB, though their BB totals are pretty much equal (311 for Pat, 325 for Abreu) and his overall OBP (.392) is a hair below Abreu's (.399). Their RBIs are almost the same (310 for Bobby vs. 311 for Burrell).

Taken all together, they're fairly comparable, with Abreu's better run production perhaps to be expected from a better baserunner with a better AL bottom of the batting order hitting behind him, and Burrell's stronger power numbers to be expected from a power hitter. Abreu's got 270 more PAs to get those numbers, but he's also played in 23 more games than Burrell, which helps accumulate stats and shows his durability.

One area that they can be separated, however, is in clutch hitting. With RISP (runners in scoring position) in the last three seasons, Abreu has a .931 OPS, well above his normal OPS of .859. Burrell hits .886 OPS, a smidge lower than his .895. In 460 ABs with RISP, Pat the Bat brought in 206 RBIs. Abreu, in 480 ABs, knocked in 243, 37 more RBIs in only 20 ABs.

A telling stat is the man on third, less than 2 outs, where team play and situational hitting are most important. In 93 ABs, Abreu hit 1.045 OPS, with 99 RBI. In 85 ABs, Burrell hit a lowly .825, with only 68 RBIs--in at least 17 situations, he couldn't even hit a sac fly.

Further, Burrell  hits .775 OPS with the bases juiced, while Abreu hits 1.042. In tight situations, Bobby hits better than normal, while Burrell hits far worse. This jives with my gut feeling about both players, that Burrell puts up good overall numbers, but can't be counted on in tough situations, while Abreu is more of a quiet, team player who turns it up when he's needed.

A consideration, too, is their respective salaries. Bobby's salary has gone up $3M since 2005 (from $13.1 to $16M this year), while Burrell's has doubled (from $7.25M to $14.25M this year). Has he been worth such an increase? The overall deal for Burrell was better, but I doubt he's been happy with it, while Abreu has pretty much held steady.

I was very surprised to find them as equal as they were, and pleasantly happy to find their different clutch-hitting numbers--the former was unexpected, but the stats in the latter made me feel that my instincts about the two were on target. This is, of course, the purpose of statistics, especially in baseball: to compare guys from different eeras, to bolster our personal convictions, or to understand why one guy seems more important than another.

And, like all statistics, they can be twisted and selectively applied. My Phillies fan replied that Burrell currently led the league in RISP average, which is either the sign of a strong April or the sign that Pat The Bat is finally living up to his nickname and first-overall selection in the amateur draft.

As you, gentle reader, can see, I enjoy statistics (perhaps too much) and am very much a sabermetrician, that newer form of stats that scoffs at traditional measurements like batting average and steals, preferring instead on-base percentage (which counts how often a player DOESN'T make an out) or slugging percentage (batting average weighted when the hit in question goes for extra bases) and other more or less arcane measurements. But that is a topic for another day.